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WikiLeaks today released over 75,000 reports covering the war in Afghanistan.

The Afghan War Diaries an extraordinary secret compendium of over 91,000 reports covering the war in Afghanistan from 2004 to 2010. The reports describe the majority of lethal military actions involving the United States military. They include the number of persons internally stated to be killed, wounded, or detained during each action, together with the precise geographical location of each event, and the military units involved and major weapon systems used.

The Afghan War Diaries is the most significant archive about the reality of war to have ever been released during the course of a war. The deaths of tens of thousands is normally only a statistic but this archive reveals locations and key events behind each of these individual deaths. We hope the impact will lead to a comprehensive understanding of the war in Afghanistan and modern warfare in general.

Wikileaks ‘War Diary’ website which contains data that was provided in advance to the Guardian, New York Times and Der Spiegel.

From The Guardian:

Their publication comes amid mounting concern that Barack Obama’s “surge” strategy is failing and as coalition troops hunt for two US naval personnel captured by the Taliban south of Kabul on Friday.

The war logs also detail:

• How a secret “black” unit of special forces hunts down Taliban leaders for “kill or capture” without trial.

• How the US covered up evidence that the Taliban have acquired deadly surface-to-air missiles.

• How the coalition is increasingly using deadly Reaper drones to hunt and kill Taliban targets by remote control from a base in Nevada.

• How the Taliban have caused growing carnage with a massive escalation of their roadside bombing campaign, which has killed more than 2,000 civilians to date.

From the New York Times:

The records also contain firsthand accounts of American anger at Pakistan’s unwillingness to confront insurgents who launched attacks near Pakistani border posts, moved openly by the truckload across the frontier, and retreated to Pakistani territory for safety.

The behind-the-scenes frustrations of soldiers on the ground and glimpses of what appear to be Pakistani skullduggery contrast sharply with the frequently rosy public pronouncements of Pakistan as an ally by American officials, looking to sustain a drone campaign over parts of Pakistani territory to strike at Qaeda havens. Administration officials also want to keep nuclear-armed Pakistan on their side to safeguard NATO supplies flowing on routes that cross Pakistan to Afghanistan.

This month, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, in one of the frequent visits by American officials to Islamabad, announced $500 million in assistance and called the United States and Pakistan “partners joined in common cause.”

The reports suggest, however, that the Pakistani military has acted as both ally and enemy, as its spy agency runs what American officials have long suspected is a double game — appeasing certain American demands for cooperation while angling to exert influence in Afghanistan through many of the same insurgent networks that the Americans are fighting to eliminate.

Behind the scenes, both Bush and Obama administration officials as well as top American commanders have confronted top Pakistani military officers with accusations of ISI complicity in attacks in Afghanistan, and even presented top Pakistani officials with lists of ISI and military operatives believed to be working with militants.

Abstract:

Recent studies have linked climatic and social instabilities in ancient China; the underlying causal mechanisms have, however, often not been quantitatively assessed. Here, using historical records and palaeoclimatic reconstructions during AD 10–1900, we demonstrate that war frequency, price of rice, locust plague, drought frequency, flood frequency and temperature in China show two predominant periodic bands around 160 and 320 years where they interact significantly with each other. Temperature cooling shows direct positive association with the frequency of external aggression war to the Chinese dynasties mostly from the northern pastoral nomadic societies, and indirect positive association with the frequency of internal war within the Chinese dynasties through drought and locust plagues. The collapses of the agricultural dynasties of the Han, Tang, Song and Ming are more closely associated with low temperature. Our study suggests that food production during the last two millennia has been more unstable during cooler periods, resulting in more social conflicts owing to rebellions within the dynasties or/and southward aggressions from northern pastoral nomadic societies in ancient China.

Full text available

The economy bottomed in 1933, and this was likely because of a combination of monetary and fiscal policy.

There is a notable correlation between the time countries abandoned the gold standard (or devalued their currencies substantially) and a renewed growth in their output. For example, Britain, which was forced off the gold standard in September 1931, recovered relatively early, while the United States, which did not effectively devalue its currency until 1933, recovered substantially later.

The evidence suggests that the US economy started to improve when expectations for future inflation rose, thus making consumers and businesses more confident to borrow and spend.

Most arguments also point to the deficit spending by the US government prior to and during World War II as the US and its allies built their armies. The 1933 New Deal is often heralded as the start of deficit spending and Keynesian economics, but, while effective,  significant impacts to GDP growth and employment weren’t really seen until rearmament picked up on a massive scale, which was around 1941. Even then, lasting prosperity for the average American didn’t arise until the after the war was over. This, however, was not expected.

After the war when millions of servicemen returned home and war production wound down, there was widespread concern that the US economy would plummet back into depression. Combine massive unemployment with huge government debt-to-GDP ratios and one can see why many expected a large contraction.

But the post-war period, except for a couple recessions, was a time of great prosperity for America. There are likely several reasons that America prospered after the war until the 1970s:

1. Innovations made during the 1930s and WWII were capitalized during the 1950s and on.

2. More integrated application of cheap energy (aka the energy subsidy) led to widespread innovation and a generalized rise in the standard of living. (E.g. kitchen of the future.)

3. Pent up demand for goods that were rationed during WWII was being unleashed. (Although not a ‘good’, this includes the demand for babies, which obviously results in demand for many goods.)

4. Massive government efforts to house returning GIs created a platform for long-term stability, consumerism and the growth of the middle class.

5. Massive government efforts to educate returning GIs helped form the basis of the service economy.

6. Perhaps most importantly, the global destruction of industrial capacity meant that American production had to fill the void. After the war, there was a real reason to produce and build! Industrial Europe and Japan were decimated, but there remained a massive population that needed to be housed, fed, clothed. Providing goods in a global economy with dramatically reduced capacity (and rebuilding global productive capacity) meant that all able hands were needed to pitch in. This resulted in a dramatic improvement in employment data.

You’re probably wondering why I’m writing this. My point is that an emergence out of a depression is only partly fueled by fiscal and monetary policy. I believe that real prosperity requires real demand – free money, government pet projects and tax incentives help stabilize unemployment but don’t create lasting prosperity. Consequently, the world may not be able to plan its way out of the current economic quagmire and back to prosperity. Such a result will likely be derived from a combination of unforeseen economic and social circumstances. Until then, the best we can do is soften the blow with monetary and fiscal stimulus.

Watch this video to get an idea.

From ABC news:

South Korea’s military is trying to find four North Korean submarines that have disappeared from tracking screens in the East Sea.

Source

North Korean leader Kim Jong Il told the military to be combat-ready in a message that coincided with South Korea’s announcement that it blamed his regime for the sinking of a warship, a dissident group said.

Kim’s order was broadcast on May 20 by O Kuk Ryol, vice chairman of the National Defense Commission, according to the website of North Korea Intellectuals Solidarity, a Seoul- based group run by defectors from the communist country.

More from Bloomberg

Some notable quotes from this ominous but hopeful speech:

- Since the end of the Korean War, the North has perpetrated incessant armed provocations against us, including the bombing attack against the presidential delegation at the Aung San Martyr’s Mausoleum in Myanmar and the bombing in midair of Korean Air Flight 858.

- We have always tolerated North Korea’s brutality, time and again. We did so because we have always had a genuine longing for peace on the Korean Peninsula. But now things are different. North Korea will pay a price corresponding to its provocative acts.

- From now on, the Republic of Korea will not tolerate any provocative act by the North and will maintain the principle of proactive deterrence. If our territorial waters, airspace or territory are violated, we will immediately exercise our right of self-defense.

- …the Government will refer this matter to the UN Security Council, so that the international community can join us in holding the North accountable. Many countries around the world have expressed their full support for our position.

- On the occasion of this incident, the Government will solidify the national security readiness. The discipline of the Armed Forces will be reestablished, military reform efforts will be expedited and combat capabilities will be reinforced drastically. The ROK-US joint combat readiness will be further strengthened on the basis of strong ROK-US alliance.

Public awareness of the importance of national security will be strengthened as well. We must never waver in the face of threats, provocations and divisive schemes by the North. We must become one when it comes to national security.

Fellow citizens,

Regardless of how rough the storm may be, we will continue to walk steadily on the path toward a prosperous nation, a compassionate society and a strong country.

Read the full transcript: LINK

So the question is: what would YOU do?

Surging testosterone would urge for a swift and vicious counter attack. However, a response by South Korea risks mutual destruction as North Korea has hundreds of warheads pointed at targets all over South Korea and Japan. This is more than about saving face and justice. This is about the broader good and taking a few punches if it means avoiding a death blow.

Many will not understand this diplomatic position. To avoid a political squeeze, it may be in South Korea’s best interest to use the public relations machine to play down North Korea’s role in this attack.