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From the New York Times:

The Justice Department is investigating whether the nation’s largest credit ratings agency, Standard & Poor’s, improperly rated dozens of mortgage securities in the years leading up to the financial crisis, according to two people interviewed by the government and another briefed on such interviews.

The investigation began before Standard & Poor’s cut the United States’ AAA credit rating this month, but it is likely to add fuel to the political firestorm that has surrounded that action. Lawmakers and some administration officials have since questioned the agency’s secretive process, its credibility and the competence of its analysts, claiming to have found an error in its debt calculations.

In the mortgage inquiry, the Justice Department has been asking about instances in which the company’s analysts wanted to award lower ratings on mortgage bonds but may have been overruled by other S.& P. business managers, according to the people with knowledge of the interviews. If the government finds enough evidence to support such a case, which is likely to be a civil case, it could undercut S.& P.’s longstanding claim that its analysts act independently from business concerns.

Read more…

Aug 172011

Have the tables finally turned for American real estate?

Trulia Summer 2011 Rent vs. Buy
View more presentations from Trulia

List of buy vs rent cities

Rank Metropolitan Area Median Price Median Household Income Ratio
1 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga. $102,100 $58,355 1.75
2 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis. $145,000 $66,404 2.18
3 Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev. $126,200 $56,294 2.24
4 Rochester, N.Y. $118,900 $52,971 2.24
5 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz. $126,000 $55,548 2.27
6 Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, Ohio $108,500 $47,761 2.27
7 Cincinnati-Middletown, Ohio-Ky.-Ind. $127,300 $54,534 2.33
8 Buffalo-Niagara Falls, N.Y. $113,000 $48,199 2.34
9 Saint Louis, Mo.-Ill. $129,000 $54,386 2.37
10 Kansas City, Mo.-Kan. $137,000 $57,363 2.39

Source: Huffpo

by Lois Beckett ProPublica, Aug. 12, 2011, 3:20 p.m.August 11, 2011

Earlier this week, the federal government put out a request for ideas [1] on how to transform some of the roughly 250,000 [2] government-owned foreclosed homes into rental properties.

The goal is to create more options in an increasingly expensive rental market [3], while dealing with the glut of foreclosed homes dragging down the housing market.

In the first six months of this year, more than 1 million properties [4] had foreclosure filings against them. About 800,000 foreclosed properties are owned by banks, and roughly a third of those belong to the federal government through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration.

About 20 percent of those 800,000 properties are on the market, according to RealtyTrac [5], a foreclosure data service. Each month, 50,000 to 60,000 foreclosed properties are sold, according to RealtyTrac, but a slightly higher number are added to the market. In other words, sales aren’t making a dent in the total inventory of foreclosed homes, and in high-foreclosure-areas, empty houses are doing damage to neighborhood property values.

Meanwhile, according to a recent Harvard study, 10 million Americans are paying more than 50 percent of their income [3] in rent.

The government is looking for win-win solutions for taxpayers, renters, investors and neighborhoods, but there’s plenty of skepticism about the foreclosure-to-rental concept.

Here’s our guide to some potential problems with the idea — and responses from an economist who supports the program.

Problem 1: If this is a good idea, why isn’t it being done already?

The government is looking to investors who might want to buy foreclosed homes in bulk and transform them into rental properties. But, as blogger Kevin Drum [6] of Mother Jones asked, if the plan were profitable, wouldn’t investors be doing it already [7]?

One answer: The government doesn’t make this process easy or cost-efficient for investors but is looking for ways to do so. Enabling bulk sales of government-owned, foreclosed homes, which is not currently standard practice, would be one incentive [8] for investors. Providing bulk-price discounts would likely be another. The government’s call for ideas is an opportunity for investors to lay out exactly what incentives would make the foreclosure-to-rental plan attractive.

One real-estate investor from Phoenix told The Wall Street Journal [9] that a crucial incentive for small businesses would be better access to loans that would allow them to take out multiple mortgages at the same time.

Problem 2: If investors benefit from the deal, taxpayers lose?

Government-owned properties are ultimately owned by taxpayers, so if the government gets a low price for homes in foreclosure-to-rental deals, taxpayers ultimately lose out.

Because foreclosed homes are selling steadily in one-off deals, real-estate executive Richard Smith called the foreclosure-to-rental plan “the stupidest idea I’ve ever heard in my life [10].”

“Foreclosed homes sold by government entities are already providing the taxpayer with a pretty lousy return,” economist Jared Bernstein [11], a former member of Obama’s economic team and a proponent [12] of the foreclosure-to-rental idea, said in a phone interview. “Will that return get lousier? It probably will.”

But economists argue that the booming market in foreclosures is having a negative impact on the housing market in general.

The Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos [13] explained how this process works [14]:

You agree to pay $200,000 for my house. You are making a 20% down payment and are approved for a $160,000 mortgage. But a vacant, shabbier house down the street just sold for $150,000 to an investor in a foreclosure. When an appraiser tells the bank how much my home is worth, they use that foreclosure as a “comparable” sale and tell the bank that my house is only worth $150,000. Now, to sell my house, I’ll either have to lower my price, or you’ll need to double your down payment.

Foreclosed homes “may be selling like hotcakes,” but “that’s contributing to lower prices, and that in itself is actually a non-trivial cost to taxpayers,” Bernstein argued. Because government agencies — and thus taxpayers — own a giant pool of mortgages, it’s in their interest to stabilize the housing market, rather than allowing home prices to spiral downward and releasing more and more foreclosed houses onto the market.

It’s a tradeoff, Bernstein said. “You’re selling a bunch of foreclosed properties for less than you otherwise would if you sold them as one-offs, but you’re ultimately reducing your credit risk with your outstanding properties.”

Problem 3: Can investors be trusted to maintain rental properties across the U.S.?

Even if the government finds investors willing to buy up big chunks of foreclosed properties to transform into rentals, or invest in a joint effort with the government to do so, there’s some concern that the process could lead to whole neighborhoods of shoddily maintained rental properties.

Richard Smith, the same real-estate executive who expressed skepticism about the value of renting rather than selling foreclosed homes, told The Wall Street Journal that investors in a bulk-rental plan would face the daunting expense of managing rental properties [9] in many areas of the country.

“The hedge-fund approach to this is a pipe dream. It’s not going to happen,” he told the Journal. “The marketplace would much prefer that these go to small investors who manage them in their own backyard.”

Regarding the problem that “investors buying foreclosed properties in bulk make lousy landlords,” Bernstein wrote on his blog [12], “It’s a valid concern, but there’s a policy wrinkle in the FHFA/admin’s plan that should help: the proposal — the RFI noted above [15] — should include requirements regarding property management and the Feds should reject proposals that aren’t convincing in that regard.”

The bottom line:

It’s true that the government doesn’t have a great track record in dealing with foreclosures. But Bernstein called it a “nothing-ventured-nothing-gained” situation.

“If it doesn’t work, it’s not going to hurt the budget. It just means that another idea didn’t work,” he said.

“At some level, the worst that can happen is this is another underwhelming government housing program.”


The Nixon Shock
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Evidence of a New Tech Bubble
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What’s the biggest limit on city growth?
The world is in the throes of a sweeping population shift from the countryside to the city.

Five False Premises about Economic Recovery
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Postrel: Obama Glamour Can’t Fix Charisma Deficit
One thing is clear in the aftermath of the debt-limit debate: U.S. President Barack Obama has lost his glamour.

The Thrill of Boredom
There’s a message here: avoid situations that may produce boredom, or rocks are liable to fly.

Question: you have an extra $200 per month…do you pay down your mortgage or invest in the markets?

This is a controversial issue with no *right* answer. But let me tell you how I approach this question by first explaining my frame of reference.

I value independence, control and security. I recognize that the markets have provided roughly 6-10% pre-tax returns (depending on asset allocation) over the long run. My mortgage cost runs at a post-tax 4.05% (in some countries mortgage interest is tax deductible and the rate should be adjusted accordingly).

First, it’s helpful to calculate expected after tax returns on my particular asset allocation, given my marginal tax rate. Let’s say those returns are still higher than the cost of my mortgage. Does it make sense then for me to invest the money?

(Of course, there are other tax considerations, such as tax sheltered accounts, when evaluating after tax returns on a portfolio. The point of this article is not to show how to calculate after returns…the point is to help you make a decision once you know what numbers you’re dealing with. Whatever you estimate your expected after tax returns on your investments to be it is critical not to compare this number directly with your after-tax mortgage interest rate.)

** Comparing apples with oranges

As with any investment opportunity, I consider returns and risk. An ‘investment’ in my mortgage is a guaranteed 4.05% return (really, its the avoidance of a 4.05% loss). What alternatives provide a guaranteed return anywhere close to 4.05%? (…and I wouldn’t consider a 30 year Treasury bond to be risk free.)

Sure, over the long run markets have provided a return above 4.05%, but one must understand these averages smooth out major volatility over the years. And that volatility could temporarily or permanently impede my ability to meet mortgage payments (explained in the section below called ‘Income Shortfall Risk’).

When comparing options I should also distinguish between average market returns and my average personal returns. Research shows that the average investor actually performs far worse than the market averages. This is because the average investor is emotional and tends to buy-high and sell-low. Market averages are meaningless if I’m only achieving 2-3% personal returns on my investments.

**Income shortfall risk

Exacerbating the problem with comparing a mortgage interest rate with expected returns is the mis-match between incoming and outgoing cash-flows, something those in the actuarial world are familiar with. Essentially, when a fixed liability is paid using an unknown variable cash flow risk is introduced into the equation.

The 4.5% mortgage expense (plus principal repayment) must be paid every month of every year – there’s limited flexibility to adjust the payment with the fluctuations of income derived from assets. In practice, I’m using income generated from assets, which includes intellectual capital (i.e. my job), to meet my debt service obligations. While my average income from all sources throughout my life may be well above the amount required to meet my debt payments, a single bad year (or bad few months) could lead me to default on my mortgage. When evaluating my ability to pay debt, I should look at worst case portfolio returns and income (e.g. during a bear market or period of unemployment – which, unfortunately often happen at the same time) rather than long term average income.

Wait, there’s more.

**Loss of control

Debt isn’t only about the hard numbers. Even if the numbers favor the investment, should I? While some are entirely comfortable with being in debt others aren’t. Personally, I don’t feel comfortable living with a contract that controls my financial – and indirectly, my non-financial – life. ‘Mort’ ‘gage’ is French for death pledge; somewhat telling of the gravity of default. Although debtors prison (or worse) is no longer recourse for lenders, terms and conditions of most loans are such that the borrower is in a weak position. While everyday practice is usually less sinister, the possibility that my family could get thrown out on the street is alone cause for my ‘mortgage-aversion’.

Others may not be as paranoid. I’ve never personally had a negative outcome to my personal indebtedness, but I partly blame my aversion to my childhood experiences. When I was young I never had a sense of financial security. Because of this, I’ve spent a good portion of my working life squirreling away money and paying down debt. Perhaps I’m an extreme example, but I believe everyone can benefit from adopting a little prudence.

Some will contradict what I’m saying by pointing to research out there suggesting many millionaires made their fortunes by using debt. True, one way to make a fortune is to find a profitable idea and use other people’s money to execute it. But research that shows this is how millionaires made their money suffers from survivorship bias. For every millionaire that borrowed his way to success, the are many others that lost everything because they remortgaged their house for a dream that failed. (By the way, its a myth that an entrepreneur can limit liability by incorporating. Anyone lending to a small business – incorporated or not – will ask for a personal guarantee from the owner.) Contrary to what some research implies, the stories I’ve heard suggest that most successful entrepreneurs avoid debt financing in the early stages, only to borrow when their idea has proven itself.

**When not to pay down debt?

The current US housing fiasco outlines the case for not paying down debt under certain circumstances. While borrowers have a moral and contractual obligation to their creditors, there comes a point when paying an underwater mortgage simply doesn’t make sense. Of course, there’s the obvious question of why someone would borrow extensively to buy a vastly overpriced asset in the first place. Ah, but that’s the point…it isn’t obvious at the time, proving my original argument about the perils of debt. A mortgage was once considered ‘good debt’ – a no-lose proposition. Not so much anymore.

After a couple years of declining home prices, once homeowners realized their homes were worth far less than was owed on the mortgage, many stopped paying their lenders back. Without getting into the specific nuances of the US mortgage market, I’ll summarize by saying that people simply don’t want to pay for something they’re not getting.

Getting back to the original question…what should you do with an extra $200 per month (pay down mortgage or invest)? I’ll shrink my answer into bite sized portions:

1. Apples with oranges risk: First understand that the tradeoffs must be evaluated in terms of risk and reward.

2. Shortfall risk: Realize that debt payments aren’t flexible, whereas returns are. Don’t let long run averages hide the true variability of cash flows from investments, including your investment in yourself.

3. Control risk: Remember that, for most of us, loan contracts work in the lender’s favor. By being in debt you give up a portion of your freedom.

4. Most importantly, determine and face your true comfort with, and capacity for, risk. What losses on your investments could you handle, given your indebtedness. What if you lost your job? Do you have dependents? Are you comfortable moving to a tiny apartment or inviting renters if you had to?

Bottom line: nobody ever went broke by being debt free.

I really, really want to try this…

In a nutshell, here’s what PIMCO thinks about housing:

  • It appears that limited mortgage availability and vulnerable consumer health are restraining demand.
  • Also weighing on the market is regulatory uncertainty over the future structure of mortgage finance and the resolution of foreclosure overhang.
  • We believe the housing market, considered to be a key driver of the economic recovery, will generally remain weak for the foreseeable future.

And there you go folks…the fuel tank for the US economy remains empty. More from Pimco.

29% drop in foreclosure activity a mirage:
“We believe the drop off in foreclosure activity is being caused largely by paperwork and procedural delays along with a dose of government intervention and we think the numbers still have a ways to go before they get better on their own.”

Gary Shilling – Housing may cause a 2012 recession:

Housing to remain a drag on the consumer:

The smartest man in Europe…

On US Debt:

“The United States is destroying its currency.  You cannot keep borrowing from abroad at the rate you are doing it and expect the dollar to maintain its value.  America has been living beyond its means for a long time.  Most people think that means that consumers have been spending too much and borrowing to do it, but that’s not what bothers me.  The government has been spending seriously beyond its means.  It has 150 military bases around the world and is involved in three wars.  How does that make sense when you are running a deficit of $1.5 trillion?”

On his investment portfolio:

“Right now my portfolio is invested in gold and Swiss francs.  Every once in a while a special situation appears that interests me.  Last year I made a real estate investment in Baghdad.  I remember the look in your face when I told you about it.  After I had owned the property for less than a year, the Iraqi government wanted to buy it and I got out with almost a 100% profit.  I like to seek opportunity in places everyone else is avoiding.”

On India, Brazil, Africa and Mongolia:

“I am also positive on India.  Everything is going forward there also.  They are a low-cost producer with plenty of momentum, but that doesn’t mean that the stock market will rise.  I think direct investments in private companies may do better.  I am also positive on the long-term prospects for Brazil.  Many proven investors outside of Europe and the United States are buying in Africa.  Mongolia, with three million people, has vast resources in copper and coal.  Corruption is part of the way of life there, but remember, until about 1920, corruption was part of the way of life in America.”

Source: Blackstone

Max Keiser interviews Steve Keen, economist and author of the book Debunking Economics.

He says that debts have spiraled out of control and the reason is shadow banking system. The program touches on the correlation between the US-EU debt crisis and the worsening Greek economy.

Highlights from the recent Colony Capital memo:

  • Until housing gets better, nothing will really get better
  • Negative home equity equals negative sentiments in general
  • China sitting on a bubble and over steering
  • …“class warfare” is on the horizon
  • Normal working people all struggling and defaults and delinquencies in housing are increasing
  • Debt is still a better risk adjusted return in the sector – Debt is the new equity
  • Interest rates are at a historic low which has created an addiction to any “yield”
  • Risk premiums have once again vanished and are back to a 2007 level

 

 

Bank Errors Continue to Cause Wrongful Foreclosures

by Paul Kiel ProPublica, June 24, 2011, 1:45 p.m.

Four years into the foreclosure crisis, banks say they’ve made major improvements in how they handle struggling homeowners. They’ve promised, for example, not to foreclose on homeowners who are being considered for mortgage modifications. But that’s still happening.

Consider the cases of Laurie Pinkerton and Lisa Peterson. The two women, both Californians and Bank of America customers, had been assured by the bank that they wouldn’t lose their homes before they’d been evaluated for a possible modification. Both had their homes sold last month.

Such cases are particularly senseless, because simply modifying the mortgage by reducing the monthly payment might be in the interest not only of the homeowner, but also of the investor who owns the mortgage. Both Pinkerton and Peterson said their homes were sold after foreclosure for far less than they’re worth.

Regulators have done little to stop the practice, and the “problem appears to be getting worse,” said Kevin Stein, associate director of the nonprofit California Reinvestment Coalition [1].

Last month, the coalition surveyed 55 foreclosure-avoidance counselors throughout the state. Collectively they serve thousands of borrowers every month. Almost all of the counselors, 94 percent, reported having worked with clients who’d lost their homes while under review for a modification. About half of the counselors reported this happened “often.” This year’s totals, which are due to be publicly released next week, are higher than those in the group’s survey last year [2].

Regulators have acknowledged the problem but have so far stopped short of solving it, say borrower advocates. More than a year ago, ProPublica reported extensively on how the banks’ inadequate systems were causing wrongful foreclosures [3].

This past April, the federal banking regulators released “consent orders” with 14 of the largest banks [4] requiring various improvements in their handling of mortgages and foreclosures. Prior to the orders, the regulators had not had clear rules on how the banks should handle modification applications. Among the new requirements, banks will now be forbidden from actually selling a home before a final decision is made on a modification. Also, if a homeowner is approved for a modification, the foreclosure process is supposed to stop. The new requirements will go into effect later this summer.

While those are necessary requirements, regulators took a “huge step backward” by not explicitly forbidding banks from pursuing foreclosure at all until a final decision has been made on a mortgage modification application, said Alys Cohen of the National Consumer Law Center.

The administration’s mortgage modification program, which offers incentives to encourage modifications, has that requirement [3]. But that program is voluntary for the banks and has been hobbled by lax oversight [5]. What’s more, over two-thirds of modifications occur outside of the program.

Federal regulators have the power to require all banks to make a decision on a modification application before moving to foreclose, but they’ve simply chosen not to.

Allowing the banks to pursue foreclosure while the modification process plays out hurts homeowners in multiple ways. First and foremost, there’s the hazard of actually losing the home to foreclosure because of bank error. The two homeowners featured in this story show that this continues to be a real danger, especially in states like California where the bank doesn’t need to go to court to foreclose. It’s also just confusing and unnecessarily stressful for homeowners. Finally, in a foreclosure homeowners actually get billed for bank costs, such as paying for a bank’s lawyers.

Instead of outright forbidding banks from pursuing foreclosure while they’re considering homeowners for a modification, regulators have asked the banks to explore whether it’s a problem. The orders ask the banks [6] to “conduct a review to determine whether processes involving past due mortgage loans or foreclosures overlap in such a way that they may impair or impede a borrower’s efforts to effectively pursue a loan modification.”

The primary regulator for the biggest banks is the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which has been much criticized for failing to crack down [4] on banks’ foreclosure failures. Bryan Hubbard, a spokesman for the OCC, said that the orders addressed the “situations that were most confusing to the borrower” and that the issue would be revisited at a later time when regulators draft new, comprehensive standards for the industry [7]. When asked whether regulators were deferring to the banks on the issue, he said they were not deferring, because regulators would have to approve whatever conclusion the banks came to.

Two homeowners’ tales

Although Pinkerton and Peterson live about 450 miles apart, they’ve had strikingly similar experiences with Bank of America.

Both contacted the bank before even missing a payment to see what steps to take, because they’d taken a hit to their income. Both say Bank of America employees told them they’d have to fall at least three months behind to be considered for a modification (advice that is both inaccurate and frequently given [8]). Reluctantly, both did so.

As a result of missing payments, both soon found themselves facing foreclosure. But at least the modification process had begun, too.

Of course, it went slowly. Like millions of other homeowners [8], they waited months and months for an answer on their modification applications and sent in the same documents over and over again. Despite sending in those documents, both were told at one point that they’d been denied because they hadn’t sent in the required documents (another extremely common problem [9]).

Finally, last month, both had their homes sold at a foreclosure auction, despite the assurances of Bank of America employees that that wouldn’t happen until they’d received a final answer on their application for a modification.

“The next thing I know, a guy is knocking on my door saying his boss is at the courthouse buying our house,” said Peterson.

What makes foreclosure particularly unnecessary in both cases is that Pinkerton and Peterson had made a point of telling the bank they had the means to bring the loan current even if they didn’t get a modification. And unlike many Californians [10], both had the option of selling the home to pay off the mortgage because their homes are worth more than they owe on their mortgage.

“I never received any letter saying you’re denied,” said Pinkerton. “If that would have been the case, I would have borrowed the money and went and paid it current.” Her family had offered to help, she said.

Both errors are particularly hard to undo because Bank of America can’t simply give the houses back: The bank sold both homes to others. In order to get the homes back, the bank would have to essentially convince the new owner to sell the home back. In a case we reported on last year, JPMorgan Chase paid about $20,000 [11] above the purchase price to the buyer of a property the bank had mistakenly sold.

At this point in the two stories, the homeowners’ paths diverge.

After complaining to everyone she could think of, Pinkerton was contacted by a Bank of America employee who said he worked in the bank’s office of the president. He told her he’d work to get the sale reversed. Regardless, Pinkerton was evicted from her home last week.

“I’ve spent thousands of dollars moving that I didn’t have,” she said.

As recently as Wednesday, the Bank of America employee told her he’s still working on her case.

Bank of America spokesman Rick Simon said the bank was researching whether a mistake had been made. “To the extent it is determined that mistakes in the process contributed to the mortgage reaching foreclosure, the bank will work with Ms. Pinkerton to explore viable and appropriate considerations, which may include rescission.”

Simon also noted that Pinkerton had been sent letters in March and April saying that she’d canceled her application for a modification.

Pinkerton said she’d never asked to cancel her application, and when she called Bank of America to ask about the letters, she was told to disregard them. She did once reject a modification offer, but that was because it would have significantly raised her monthly payments. She says a Bank of America employee told her to appeal the offer because it had erroneously calculated her income at twice its actual level.

Peterson has been more successful. After the foreclosure sale, she made a number of frantic calls and finally got a bank employee to admit there’d been a mistake, she says. But nothing could be done about it, she was told.

After being contacted by various employees who said they’d been assigned to help resolve the matter, but who then couldn’t be reached, she eventually hired an attorney.

Earlier this month, Bank of America rescinded the sale and returned the title to Peterson.

It’s unclear whether the bank paid a premium to the buyer of Peterson’s property in order to get it back. Bank of America’s Simon said, “We continue to work on resolution of remaining third-party issues.”

In general, Simon said such mistaken foreclosures “have been relatively rare, compared to the volume of defaults and foreclosure activity in today’s economy.” Across the country, about 4 million mortgages are currently more than three months delinquent.

“Any problem in this regard is of tremendous concern, and we have put additional checks and practices in place to further limit the possibilities,” he added.

To Peterson, the lesson from her experience is clear. “This system is broken,” she said. “You can’t trust what the bank tells you.”


This is great – I love the history of money. Nothing is new – the names and technology changes, but human nature stays the same.

(By the way, if you want to learn about the hyperinflationary episode of 1920s Germany, subscribe to Plan B Economics and I’ll send you a copy of “The Inflation Threat”.)

Learn…and don’t repeat the mistakes of our ancestors:

Two of my favorite books on the history of financial speculation and bubbles. If you only read two books on economics and investing, these are what you should read:

World stocks hit 12-week low on growth jitters

Roubini’s ‘Perfect Storm’

Got an M.B.A.? Great, but I Prefer Uncommon Sense

A Tale of Three Canadian Housing Markets

The Geography of Immigrant Skills: Educational Profiles of Metropolitan Areas

The $61 Trillion Hole

Ira Sohn Notes Part 1, Part 2

According to Professor Steve Keen, the real force is accelerating mortgage debt:

xx

There is a strong disincentive for mortgage lenders to recognize losses on their books.