Inflation
Don Coxe: Basic Points Feb 2010
Hard Rocks and Hard Shocks »
Inflation-Deflation Debate (audio)
AUDIO John Williams and Bob Hoye debate the Inflation/Deflation outlook. This is perhaps the greatest source of controversy for economists and market forecasters. John Williams is the master behind the ’shadow stats’ website, which adjusts government statistics to give his version of the truth. These stats are now widely used by the mainstream, as trust in... »
Dylan Grice: Popular Delusions (Feb 26)
Anyone who has studied the Weimar Republic and Germany’s great inflation understands that a combination of massive budget deficits and a willingness to monetize debt can lead to awful consequences. The Treaty of Versailles, under which Germany was administered after defeat during World War 1, stripped Germany of its productive assets and left the Weimar... »
Agcapita Update on Agriculture
Agcapita Partners LP, an investment manager that specializes in agricultural land investment provides its update on agriculture and the economy. Agriculture summary: – China has only 8 percent of the world’s fresh water to meet the needs of 22 percent of the world’s people. – In India, urban water demand is expected to double—and industrial demand to... »
Fed Raises Discount Rate to 0.75%
The Federal Reserve raised the discount rate from 0.50 to 0.75%. This appears to contradict the language in recent fed announcements around monetary policy. However, the rate is still low on relative terms, and the Fed would likely argue that this brings policy away from ‘emergency’ levels to ‘normal-low’ levels. Essentially, the move encourages banks... »
Jobs & PPI Moving in the Wrong Directions
Initial claims: 473,000 vs 430,000 expected Headline PPI: up 1.4%! One data point doesn’t make a trend, but this is something worth watching because rising unemployment and inflation demands contradictory monetary and fiscal policies. »
The Economy and Why the Federal Reserve Needs to Supervise Banks
“Deposit institutions are holding over a trillion dollars of excess reserves (that is, over 15 times what they are required to hold given their deposits). These excess reserves create the potential for high inflation. Suppose that households believe that prices will rise. They would then demand more deposits to use for transactions. Banks can... »
Marc Faber on Global Defaults
Remember when Bear Stearns got bailed out? Everyone thought that was the bottom and the end of the bailouts. However, Bear Stearns’ shotgun marriage solved nothing. Now we have Dubai getting backstopped, Greece looking for a handout…so what’s next? »
Bosom Buddies: Energy & GDP
5 great presentations showing the link between energy and economic growth. ‘Delusions of Finance’ by Gail Tverberg is perhaps the scariest…especially given the accuracy of her predictions made in January 2008. Ignore at your own risk… Delusions of Finance Debt and our Situation Phantom Dematerialization Energy & Globalization Empirical Look at Global Efficiencies »
Marc Faber: “US Has Reached its Zero Hour”
The credit bubble that built up between 2001 and 2007 is still smoldering under the surface of a mounting pile of debt. US GDP returns from each $1 of new debt has plummeted. Will the US lose its credit rating? Will the US default or monetize the debt? Does this matter, given that the US is still... »