Silver is fundamentally undervalued – especially relative to gold. Both will do well during a currency crisis, according to Jim, but silver could outperform. Jim also comments on agricultural commodities in this rapid-fire Q&A session.
Sep 022010
According to Montier, bonds are pricing in a 70% probability the US becomes the next Japan.
Sep 012010
For those who have heard calls that the Fed should raise short-term rates to avoid a deflationary trap, but cannot see how that could help promote growth, Bill Hester of Hussman Funds provides an explanation. He also illustrates investing tactics within such an environment, which feels more like a poker [...]
Aug 262010
Albert Edwards released his latest and it’s a shocker. “Worse than Japan…”, “S&P bottoming around 450″. This uber-bear among bears couldn’t come up with a more apocalyptic outlook. Investors cannot move for the weight of broker research comparing the current conjuncture in the US with Japan a decade ago. While [...]
He’s predicting 4-5 million more lost jobs, in what is an ongoing contraction far beyond the garden variety inventory recessions of the post-war era. I don’t know what your definition of a ‘depression’ is, but this is definitely not playing by the same rule book as previous recessions. QE2 here [...]
Market researcher Charles Nenner says the Dow could follow Japan’s deflationary lead reaching 5,000 in the next 2-3 years. Share, Print or PDF
Aug 252010
A Fragile Economic Outlook Continues Last week, the markets responded to further evidence of a slowing in economic activity, including a further deterioration in new claims for unemployment. Given that the sharpest deterioration in leading economic measures such as our Recession Warning Composite and the ECRI weekly leading index growth [...]
Courtesy of David Rosenberg’s daily report (Gluskin Sheff). These 5 charts alone show why the US is stuck in a liquidity trap and the Fed is pushing on a string. …and the result of a liquidity trap is a bull market in bonds (refer to the 1930s at the left side [...]
Tight oil production, whether at a peak or not, will (has) cause(d) oil prices to rise. We saw this from 2004-2008. During late 2008, we also saw what happens to the economy when oil prices hit $145/bbl. Despite what many believe, peak oil won’t create a Mad Max scenario with [...]
Although I give him a C+ for timing during 2009, I give him an A+ for predicting the housing implosion and calling 2010 perfectly. David Rosenberg – previously calling for soft economic growth in 2010 – is now flat-out saying Q3 GDP will be negative. Compare this to the 2.5-3.5% [...]
Aug 192010
I don’t agree with everything Nassim says. And sometimes I question how he arrived at his conclusions. But there are fundamental points that he makes that apply to everyone – whether you build bridges, run a hospital or invest money. Real risk is immeasurable. It is not based on quantifiable [...]
Aug 192010
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Guest post by Bulls, Bears & Pigs No, this is not a Seinfeld-like opening to a comedy bit. I’m talking about this eye popping rally in bonds that has sent the 2 year hitting record low yields day after day and the 10 year back to March 2009 levels. Is [...]
