Feb 022012
Feb 012012
Listen to the interview with Ned by Jim Puplava.
Jan 302012
Guest post by Bulls, Bears and Pigs
This post was originally going to be long winded, going into the details of my thoughts but I don’t want to waste time and so I’ll get straight to the point and give the executive summary version. There is a clear change in character in the market – the bull is back. The relentless grind higher and the “upside damage” that has been done is telling me the bear case is dead. I believe the market is suggesting that the worst is over in Europe (I said the worst is over not that the crisis is over) and that the crisis is going to pass without harming the US in a material way. I believe the extremes in bullish sentiment we are seeing is indicative of what you often see early in a new bull market advance and is not cause for alarm aside from an eventual consolidation of these gains. I see plenty of anger and top picking towards this rally by the retail permabear trading community similar to what I have seen early in prior bull market advances since 2009. I’m noticing an obsession of these jokers in bottom picking TVIX getting crushed in the process just like what I saw in FAZ in the summer of 2009. I believe ECRI is going to be tossed into the guru turned goat bin alongside with Roubini, Whitney and Schiff in 2009.
Since I believe the bull is back, I’ve been focusing my attention to sector and stock research. I’m no longer concerning myself with the macro nearly as much as I have been of late. I’ll still be willing to put on a protective hedge just in case I’m wrong about the bull being back as I continue my accumulation of long positions in individual names, because I still have doubts deep down (and that’s actually a bullish sign). As everyone else out there obbsess about Europe, I’m gong to be looking for the hidden gems and despite the rally, they are still out there especially in the small/micro cap space…it’s not too late at all to find them because I have found that some small/micro caps can be slow to react to the major trend changes in the general market. I find it really enjoyable sifting through stock universe and researching sectors to uncover these gems becoming an investor at what I believe to be ground floor levels….remember that word…investor? I bet when most people who are in the game now first started playing the market they were “investors” but then after getting burned by either the tech bubble collapse or in 2008, they turned permabear and became “traders”. I consider myself part investor part speculator…. I try to take the best of both worlds. I’ll talk more about this and about interesting sectors I’m looking at in the coming posts.
“Reducing budget deficits will put both wages and profits under downward pressure, the economies will contract, and tax revenues will fall. So the debt burden, which is a ratio of the accumulated debt to the GDP, will actually rise, requiring further budget cuts, setting in motion a vicious circle.”
Read George Soros’ article on How to Save the Euro
Click below to listen
Jan 272012
Jan 252012
1. Market volatility is part and parcel of every post-bubble deleveraging cycle.
2. Deflation trumps inflation as the primary trend in a deleveraging cycle.
3. Balance sheet quality becomes so much more important in cycles like these.
4. Always be on the lookout for assets priced for recession.
5. In this post-bubble environment, policy rates will remain near the floor for years.
6. Keeping policy rates low means that real rates will remain negative.
7. Global deleveraging cycles almost invariably bring on heightened geo-political tensions.
8. Populist policies win the roost in these types of cycles.
How many times have I heard this…
Japan `Bouncing Back,’ Large-Cap Stocks `Cheap’
Opportunity in Japan Real Estate, Construction
