Mar 022011
Some startling quotes from Bill Gross’s latest investment outlook:
- 70% of the annualized issuance since the beginning of QE II has been purchased by the Fed, with the balance absorbed by those old standbys – the Chinese, Japanese and other reserve surplus sovereigns.
- Treasury yields are perhaps 150 basis points or 1½% too low when viewed on a historical context and when compared with expected nominal GDP growth of 5%.
- By eliminating QE II, the Fed would be ripping a Band-Aid off a partially healed scab.
Sounds like a quandary to me.
Feb 202011
Life in Beijing
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Photo Contest Winners
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Australian Flooding
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Dec 262010
Click image for full report
Dec 202010
Here’s the US debt clock showing what 2015 will be like given the current trajectory of US borrowing. Of course, there’s the possibility the current trajectory is changed, and there are growing forces that will create that change. Nonetheless, here are some startling predictions:
- US national debt per taxpayer $200k
- Total US debt per family $748k
- Total US unfunded liabilities per US taxpayer $1.2MM
- 90MM food stamp recipients
Click image to see live chart:
Dec 182010
I highly recommend this podcast series to EVERYONE! It changed the way I think of life and forced a paradigm shift in my view of World War 2.
This podcast series looks at the Eastern Front – the confrontation between the USSR and Germany during World War 2. Despite what Western history textbooks say about Normandy and the British/American/French/Canadian efforts, which were heroic, the Eastern Front was the defining theater of World War 2. The Eastern Front drained Germany of its tactical capability and culled so much of its military that by the time the beaches at Normandy were stormed Germany was already a shadow of its former self.
The Eastern Front cut the legs off the German military, but not without massive sacrifice. With approximately 27 million military and civilian deaths (roughly 50/50 split) the USSR suffered more casualties than all allied forces combined, and the Eastern Front remains the biggest military confrontation in world history.
The confrontation between the USSR and Germany was one of ideology, with both viewing their enemy as sub-human. Consequently, fighting was unbelievably vicious and vengeful. This was a fight to eradicate an ideological enemy, and for many death was the best they could hope for.
What hit me most was the speed at which humanity devolved into barbarianism, and the total lack of empathy for human suffering. Two groups of people were made to hate each other so much that they fought the most evil conflict of all time.
Bookmark this page. These are long shows, so make sure you have some time (and peace and quiet) before you start. Invest the time – I promise you’ll be glad you did.
Ghosts of the Ostfront, hosted and researched by Dan Carlin:
Ghosts of the Ostfront I (1:05)
Part One covering the conflict between the Germans and the Soviet Union in the Second World War. Dan gives an introduction to the subject and discusses the causes and opening moves of Operation Barbarossa.
Ghosts of the Ostfront II (1:28)
In Part Two of the Ostfront series covering WW2 on the Eastern Front, Dan looks at the attempt to take Moscow and the many compelling stories surrounding the momentous1941 German offensive.
Ghosts of the Ostfront III (1:30)
In Part Three of the Ostfront series covering WW2 on the Eastern Front, Dan looks at the situation in the U.S.S.R. during 1942 and early 1943, including the dreadful Battle of Stalingrad.
Ghosts of the Ostfront IV (1:39)
In the final episode of the horror story that is the Eastern Front the tale descends into unimaginable darkness as vengeance is called down on Germany. This graphic episode is not for young ears.
Nov 262010
I really like looking at old pictures. These ones – taken during the Great Depression – are courtesy of the Franklin D. Roosevelt Presidential Library and Museum, Hyde Park, New York.
Also, be sure to read this 1931 letter to Otis Preston, a Federal Reserve banker, from Mrs. William J. Murphy, describing the plight of her South Dakota farm family from 1904 to 1931.
Nov 032010
Click on the image for a live look. Also, find out where to vote and who to vote for here.
And in case you didn’t know…voters are angry!
The World Wildlife Fund released it’s groundbreaking report on The Living Planet. It’s a deep look at the ecological footprint humans are leaving on this planet. According to the WWF, we’ll need two earths by 2030 to provide the needs and absorb the after-effects of the human population:
Ending ecological overshoot is essential in order to ensure the continued supply of ecosystem services and thus future human health, wealth and well-being. Using a new Footprint Scenario Calculator developed by the Global Footprint Network (GFN), this report presents various future scenarios based on different variables related to resource consumption, land use and productivity. Under a “business as usual” scenario, the outlook is serious: even with modest UN projections for population growth, consumption and climate change, by 2030 humanity will need the capacity of two Earths to absorb CO2 waste and keep up with natural resource consumption. Alternative scenarios based on different food consumption patterns and energy mixes illustrate immediate actions that could close the gap between Ecological Footprint and biocapacity — and also some of the dilemmas and decisions these entail. (Source: Living Planet Report)
Living Planet Report 2010 Webcast from WWF on Vimeo.
According to research conducted by Robert Half (the staffing company), managers in Canada and the US are least concerned about employees jumping ship. This likely translates into the way they are treated by managers – when retention isn’t a concern it is more likely that employees are treated like replaceable commodities. If you’re an unemployed banker or baker, you may want to consider Brazil where employee retention is a major concern!
Sep 142010
Sep 102010
In a crowning expose on income inequality in the United States, Slate provides a plethora of information and opinions on why the middle class American is crumbling. The middle class is the glue that holds a society together, and research suggest this segment of America has been deteriorating since the mid-1900s.
Even the earliest research indicated troubling trends:
In 1915, a statistician at the University of Wisconsin named Willford I. King published The Wealth and Income of the People of the United States, the most comprehensive study of its kind to date. The United States was displacing Great Britain as the world’s wealthiest nation, but detailed information about its economy was not yet readily available; the federal government wouldn’t start collecting such data in any systematic way until the 1930s. One of King’s purposes was to reassure the public that all Americans were sharing in the country’s newfound wealth.
King was somewhat troubled to find that the richest 1 percent possessed about 15 percent of the nation’s income. (A more authoritative subsequent calculation puts the figure slightly higher, at about 18 percent.)
Check out Slate’s introduction to the issue: Introducing the Great Divergence
For more information, be sure to watch the following videos of Alan Greenspan, Paul Krugman and Elizabeth Warren (particularly Elizabeth Warren – this is a lecture that everyone should watch):
Sep 082010
Demographic research by the Pew Research Center reveals the troubles younger Americans face when it comes to their personal finances:
A majority of 18- to 29-year-olds (55%) say they are watching their spending “very closely” these days, up from 43% of 18- to 29-year-olds who shared that view in 2006. That increase almost matches the 11-point rise in the overall proportion of adults who are keeping a closer eye on their finances these days (46% in 2006 vs. 57% now).
Adults under age 30 continue to worry that they aren’t saving or investing enough (72% in 2006, 77% today). That is about equal to the percentage of those ages 30 to 45 (78%) who say they are concerned about growing their nest eggs.
One reason Millennials are particularly vulnerable to hard times is that they are by far the least likely of any generation to be covered by health insurance; about six-in-ten (61%) of all Millennials say they are covered by some form of health plan, compared with 73% of Gen Xers, 83% of Baby Boomers and 95% of the Silent generation (most of the oldest group are eligible for Medicare or receive health benefits as part of their retirement plans).
Click image for complete research report
Aug 312010
“This country has very weak safety nets,” Mohamed El Erian, CEO at PIMCO, said in a radio interview today on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene. “It is built on the assumption that our labor markets are very flexible, that if you lose your job in California you move somewhere else, you get another job, and what we’re seeing is structural unemployment.”
Aug 292010
BBC Newsnight guests Hugh Hendry and Dr Linda Yueh discuss the importance of the grey dust; BHP Billiton’s hostile takeover bid for Potash Corp; the Chinese market’s dependence on potash imports and the world’s ability to feed itself.
Aug 252010
