October 27, 2016

David Rosenberg: All signs are flashing this market is ‘late in the game’

Here are the signs David Rosenberg pointed out in his Financial Post article:

  • The TSX has not made a new high in over two years and it has been 17 months for the broad NYSE Composite stock index.
  • The yield curve is flattening. Leading economic indicators are sputtering.
  • Uber-tight credit spreads and ultra-low cap rates in real estate serve as confirmations of late-cycle pricing.
  • Traditional valuation metrics for equities are every bit as high if not higher than they were in the Fall of 2007.
  • We are well past the peak in autos and just passed the peak of the housing cycle.
  • Not just that but the broad measures of unemployment have stopped going down as well.
  • And the mega Merger Mania we are seeing invariably takes place at or near cycle peaks, as companies realize that they can no longer grow their earnings organically. We have just witnessed five multi-billion dollar deals this past week alone — $207 billion globally (AT&T/Time Warner; TD Ameritrade/Scottrade) in what has been the most active announcement list since 1999 … what do you know, near the tail end of that tech bull market too.
Add to this list $32 trillion in Chinese bank assets (double that of the US) and an imminent pricking of the Canadian real estate bubble and you have a big problem.