January 18, 2016

4 Reasons to Worry

1. ISM PMI is way below 50. The appreciating US dollar is decimating US manufacturing.

2. Global credit growth has turned negative. Global GDP growth is highly dependent on credit growth.

3. The Fed has already effectively tightened by 325 basis points when you consider the end of QE. We are much further along the tightening cycle than many understand.

4. China may be the next Japan. The era of mercantilism is over. Ironically, Chinese authorities will probably pursue reflation efforts that attempt to stimulate exports. Expect more Yuan devaluation.