May 7, 2013

Fresh All Time High and Still No Respect by the Herd

Guest post by Bulls, Bears and Pigs:

Better than expected payrolls and significantly revised March payrolls caught everyone flat footed Friday morning. Given the trend in the disappointing economic data as of late, nobody expected that 165 K print or last month's upward revision. It looks like my protective put purchases on Thursday are going to indeed turn out to be a sacrifice to the trading gods...and I don't have a problem with that at all! Any of you who have been bullishly positioned should thank me!

With the market at a fresh all time high do you think it's changed the ingrained miserable SOB herd mentality out there that have dismissed this bull market from day one? Not one bit. I still keep seeing the same "blow off top!" "It's rigged by the Fed",  type comments which have been ongoing for over 3 years. So pathetic, so delusional. Keep reading articles from zerohedge's done you really good I'm sure. Keep following Roubini, Schiff, Hussman and the rest of the miserable permabear SOBs who have been utterly humiliated by the market for 4 years and yet continue to display arrogance without giving any mea culpa for being as horribly wrong as they have been. Unbelievable these guys are. I for one don't feel sorry for anyone of their devotees. And as I said before, it doesn't matter if the market were to make a bull market peak shortly and descend into a new bear...these jokers have been wrong for far too long and the market has gone up far too high for them to have any credibility as far as I'm concerned.
Tough to say where the market goes in the ST at this point. The rule of thumb is that when a market breaks out to an all time high it's a powerful signal and more ST gains are likely but there obviously has to be a limit to this and given that the market is already overbought, it doesn't seem likely the market will be able to advance a lot further without some sort of consolidation first. I've outlined some factors that support both the bull and bear case in the ST. One thing's for sure though is must respect a market that is making a new high or low and more often then not you get ran over if you try and step in front of it betting the other way. Just look at what happened when I bought those puts last week! 
Two weeks ago I posted that global leading indicator chart which suggests that the data is going to start looking a lot better in the immanent future. Is this why the market has been able to ignore any bad news? We are certainly going to find out! This should be an interesting summer. Given my partially hedged position, I can sit back and watch the show with less anxiety. And have you noticed that sovereign yields in PIGS have collapsed to multi year lows? That's the complete opposite of what happened in the springs of 2010, 2011, 2012 when yields were creeping higher until they blew out to "crisis" levels which helped trigger the major spring/summer corrections. 
I also want to say something about Doug Kass. This guy has gotta be an ego maniac.  He's short Buffett's Berkshire and was invited to Buffet's annual shareholder meeting to challenge Buffet with some bearish questions. Out of all the stocks to short, Kass chooses Berkshire. Jesus. I think he's trying to pick a top on Buffet rather than the stock itself. I remember reading an article by Kass a few years back claiming Buffett has lost his touch. Well Kass, it's YOU who has lost your touch. Buffett proved you wrong then and  (so far) again this year. I'm not sure at what price Kass is short, but whatever it is, he's underwater as the stock made an all time high Friday. From my knowledge, Kass has been mostly short the market since the year began as well and so before being critical of others, especially legends like Buffett he should be more critical of himself.