March 25, 2013

Coffee: Ralph Acampora is bullish, world war in Asia, and more

Here are the rocks I'm looking under this morning while I drink my morning generic brand instant coffee:

1. 50 year investing veteran, Ralph Acampora, is bullish on stocks 
We're in a secular bull market. By definition, that means long term. The low, in March of 2009, was a generational low. Part one of a secular bull market, this period that we're in, is led by investor disbelief and fear.

We have been going through that for the last four years. Every time we turn around, there's another bit of very scary negative news: the U.S. (credit rating) gets downgraded; the European problems, Italy and Spain; the fiscal cliff. It goes on and on. People have stayed out of the market because of their disbelief.

Part two of the structural shift in sentiment is a period where you go from disbelief to belief and trust. That's led by secondary stocks. We're on the cusp of doing that right now. Secondary stocks, or smaller companies, are leading and moving up. The Russell 2000 index is making new highs, doing better than the S&P 500 itself.

The third phase of structural sentiment is when people become very complacent and greedy. There are IPOs and speculative stocks. We're not even remotely close yet.

When will it end? It's going to end when people are really back in the market big time. I don't see that for a long, long time.

2. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard on the drift towards world war in Asia
"We simply cannot tolerate any challenge now, or in the future. No nation should underestimate the firmness of our resolve," said Shinzo Abe, the hawkish premier bent on national revival.

After talking to Japanese officials in Tokyo over the last few days, I have the strong impression not only that they are ready to fight, but also that they expect to win, and furthermore that conflict may come at any moment.

"They are sending ships and even aircraft into our territory every day. It is intense provocation. We're making every effort not to be provoked but they are using fire-control radar. This is one step away from conflict and we are very worried," said a top government official.

3. The universe is 13.82 billion years old
The Universe is a wee bit older than we thought. Not only that, but turns out the ingredients are a little bit different, too. And not only that, but the way they’re mixed isn’t quite what we expected, either. And not only that, but there are hints and whispers of something much grander going on as well.

4. Gerald Celente's ten trends for 2013