Recent research out of Kuwait forecasts global peak oil around 2014.
Using a highly sophisticated model, Ibrahim Sami Nashawi, Adel Malallah and Mohammed Al-Bisharah (working for Department of Petroleum Engineering, College of Engineering and Petroleum, Kuwait University, Kuwait and Kuwait Oil Company) evaluate oil production and depletion rates for 47 major oil producing nations.
Here’s their main conclusion (full report):
The analysis of 47 major oil producing countries estimates the world’s ultimate crude oil reserve by 2140 BSTB and the remaining recoverable oil by 1161 BSTB. The world production is estimated to peak in 2014 at a rate of 79 MMSTB/D. OPEC has remaining reserve of 909 BSTB, which is about 78% of the world reserves. OPEC production is expected to peak in 2026 at a rate of 53 MMSTB/D. On the basis of 2005 world crude oil production and current recovery techniques, the world oil reserves are being depleted at an annual rate of 2.1%.
While I agree with their conclusion on non-OPEC production, which is already mostly in decline, I wonder about their conclusion on OPEC production. The researchers forecast OPEC production to grow at significant rates until around 2026, which seems unlikely given the experience during 2005-2008.
From 2005-2008 oil prices skyrocketed, but OPEC production barely budged. Spare capacity was maxed-out. So where are the production increases coming from?
I’m not a geologist, so I could be wrong about OPEC production. Regardless, even with these suspiciously optimistic OPEC growth rates, peak global production is still forecast to occur by 2014.
Time to sell your Hummer.
