Mar 102010
ABC News Consumer Index is still at rock bottom. Sounds bad, right? But look at the other time when the Index was at a similar level: around 1991.
During the early 1990s, America was hit by a new kind of recession – one that targeted middle-office workers. “Downsizing” became part of our vocabulary and for the first time many white collared workers felt vulnerable. However, the corporate re-alignment that came with downsizing helped trigger the start of a massive bull market. Arguably, the 1990s was the last period of real economic growth for America.
Moral of the story: consumer sentiment is backward-looking and has a poor track record predicting economic activity.
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