The current births-deaths factor was created in March 2008. This means it is based on sample data prior to March 2008. In other words, the births-deaths adjustment used in today’s mega-recession is based on a sample taken during the economic peak. Makes no sense? I agree.
The chart below shows the adjustment figures used since the establishment of the new births-deaths benchmark.
Note that the January adjustment was a large negative number. A large negative January adjustment occurs repeatedly across the historical births-deaths data. Unless the Bureau of Labor Statistics does some ‘fine-tuning’ (i.e. blatant manipulation) of the data, I would expect the January 2010 births-deaths adjustment to have material negative implications for January employment data. Brace for a negative January employment report.
